SD1H4H — Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Multi-TF Structure Backtest Original Model

Dukascopy 1-minute BID data, Jan 2022 → present · Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (BTCUSD)
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Trading Costs: Gross vs. Net

Every result shown elsewhere on this site is GROSS — zero fees, zero funding. This page applies a real Bybit USDT-perpetual cost model to every trade: 0.055% taker fee on both entry and exit (this strategy's entries/exits are structure breaks and stop-hits — effectively market orders, not resting limit orders that could earn the lower maker rate), plus Bybit's actual historical BTCUSDT funding rate at every 8-hour funding timestamp the trade was open for, applied to the BTC price at that moment — a long pays when the rate is positive and receives when negative, the standard perpetual-funding convention. Both figures are computed per-trade (unlike a fixed spread, a perpetual's cost scales with price and with how long the position was held) then converted to an R-multiple deduction using each trade's own risk (|entry − stop|), same as every other market on this site. Basis: Bybit USDT-perpetual — taker fee (0.055%/side) + actual historical funding rate over each trade's holding period.

Strategy A

Avg cost per trade: 0.169R. edge does NOT survive costs

Avg R/Trade
+0.10 → -0.07
Total R
+166.9 → -118.7
Profit Factor
1.183 → 0.895
Win Rate
29.65% → 26.99%
Final Balance ($1,000 start)
$3,201 → $184
Gross vs net cumulative RGross vs net account balance

Strategy B

Avg cost per trade: 0.176R. edge does NOT survive costs

Avg R/Trade
+0.13 → -0.05
Total R
+143.5 → -55.1
Profit Factor
1.175 → 0.944
Win Rate
21.26% → 19.84%
Final Balance ($1,000 start)
$2,523 → $347
Gross vs net cumulative RGross vs net account balance
Read: at least one strategy does NOT survive this cost estimate — its apparent edge is an artifact of ignoring execution costs. Strategy A's total return is reduced by 171.1% after costs, Strategy B's by 138.4%. Whichever strategy has the thinner gross avg R/trade (here, Strategy A) has the least margin to absorb execution costs before its edge becomes marginal — if funding rates or realized slippage on fills run meaningfully worse than the historical average used here, that strategy is the one to re-examine first.