Value-Area Migration Strategy
This is a genuinely different strategy from the BOS/CHoCH structure strategy that the rest of this site covers -- different entry trigger (swing alternation, not a structure break), different exit philosophy (a fixed price target, not a trend-following runner). It is NOT another filter or mechanic layered on the main strategy, so its results are kept entirely separate from the Strategy Priority Ranking and Best Validated Version pages rather than mixed in.
The idea: once price confirms a swing point (a 10/10-bar pivot high or
low), then later confirms the OPPOSITE type of swing point, trade back toward the OLDER of the
two swings -- a swing low confirming after a swing high means long, targeting back up toward
that high; the mirror image for a new high after a low. Full design rationale, every
alternative considered, and the implementation writeup below are in
VALUE_AREA_MIGRATION_SPEC.md at the repo root.
stop = entry ± 1.5×ATR14, matching
this project's own already-validated ATR-stop finding). Every number on this page is from the
CORRECTED version. Full writeup: Section 8 of the spec file.
Results across all 15 markets this project has tested (50% target fraction)
6 of 14 cost-surviving markets pass this project's 3-fold walk-forward bar -- against roughly 1.75 expected by pure chance at this many comparisons (same math this project used for its session-filter multiple-comparisons check). A real, elevated hit rate, but three of the robust hits (ETH, SOL, LINK) are crypto assets that move together and are not independent confirmations of anything -- the honest read is closer to 4 independent hits (gold, Nasdaq, EUR/USD, "crypto" as one correlated bloc) than 6. Gold's own profile is the most conservative and arguably most trustworthy of the passers, being both the market the idea was observed on and the one with the least cross-market correlation risk.
| # | Market | Trades | Win % | Net Avg R | Net Total R | MC Prob. Profit | MC Risk of Ruin | Median DD | Walk-Forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) | 913 | 54.11% | +0.131 | +119.8R | 99.8% | 0.1% | 19.6% | Robust (3/3) |
| 2 | Solana (SOL/USDT perp) | 1192 | 56.96% | +0.082 | +98.2R | 99.0% | 0.1% | 20.1% | Robust (3/3) |
| 3 | Ethereum (ETH/USDT perp) | 1136 | 55.9% | +0.076 | +86.1R | 98.0% | 0.1% | 20.8% | Robust (3/3) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) | 835 | 51.26% | +0.100 | +83.6R | 97.3% | 0.1% | 21.6% | Robust (3/3) |
| 5 | Chainlink (LINK/USDT perp) | 1213 | 57.79% | +0.058 | +69.9R | 94.9% | 0.1% | 22.4% | Robust (3/3) |
| 6 | Gold (XAU/USD) | 923 | 51.9% | +0.057 | +52.3R | 88.1% | 0.3% | 25.4% | Robust (3/3) |
| 7 | XRP (XRP/USDT perp) | 1120 | 56.79% | +0.053 | +59.7R | 94.3% | 0.1% | 22.5% | Not robust (2/3) |
| 8 | Sui (SUI/USDT perp) | 900 | 55.78% | +0.045 | +40.5R | 85.7% | 0.1% | 22.3% | Not robust (1/3) |
| 9 | BNB (BNB/USDT perp) | 1189 | 55.42% | +0.040 | +47.2R | 85.6% | 0.2% | 26.0% | Not robust (2/3) |
| 10 | Dogecoin (DOGE/USDT perp) | 1090 | 55.23% | +0.041 | +44.7R | 85.2% | 0.8% | 25.3% | Not robust (1/3) |
| 11 | Arbitrum (ARB/USDT perp) | 889 | 55.79% | +0.029 | +25.7R | 74.5% | 0.5% | 24.6% | Not robust (1/3) |
| 12 | S&P 500 (US 500) | 864 | 51.62% | +0.036 | +30.8R | 73.5% | 1.4% | 29.0% | Not robust (2/3) |
| 13 | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 1124 | 54.72% | +0.031 | +34.5R | 73.3% | 1.3% | 28.8% | Not robust (2/3) |
| 14 | Cardano (ADA/USDT perp) | 1160 | 53.97% | +0.016 | +18.4R | 63.5% | 2.6% | 30.5% | Not robust (1/3) |
| 15 | Silver (XAG/USD) | 935 | 45.13% | -0.230 | -215.5R | n/a | n/a | n/a | Fails costs |
Gold's target-fraction sweep (net of costs, stop_mode=atr)
50% and 78.6% were 3/3 robust; 61.8% and 100% were 2/3 -- a believable, mixed pattern (not a suspiciously clean sweep), which is itself evidence the corrected version isn't hiding the same bug in a subtler form.
| Target fraction | Trades | Net Avg R | Net Total R | Walk-Forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 923 | +0.057 | +52.3R | 3/3 (robust) |
| 61.8% | 882 | +0.048 | +42.7R | 2/3 |
| 78.6% | 829 | +0.045 | +37.5R | 3/3 (robust) |
| 100% | 761 | +0.038 | +29.1R | 2/3 |
atrstop_15 finding) rather than raw pass/fail count.
Full fraction sweep, all 14 cost-surviving markets
19 of 56 market×fraction combinations pass 3/3 walk-forward (vs. roughly 7 expected by pure chance) and 9 of 14 markets have at least one passing fraction -- but per the note above, the more informative read is the pattern: EUR/USD, SOLUSDT, and USATECHIDXUSD show a broad region (majority of fractions passing); USA500IDXUSD shows an adjacent pair at the high end. Everything else is either a single isolated point or an alternating pattern (pass/fail/pass/fail) -- treated as noise, the same way this project has rejected similarly unstable parameter sweeps before (e.g. the stop-distance H1 hypothesis).
| Market | 50% | 61.8% | 78.6% | 100% | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | pass | fail | pass | fail | Alternating — unstable |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | fail | fail | fail | fail | No robust fraction |
| Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) | pass | fail | pass | pass | Broad region |
| S&P 500 (US 500) | fail | fail | pass | pass | Adjacent pair |
| Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) | pass | pass | pass | fail | Broad region |
| Ethereum (ETH/USDT perp) | pass | fail | pass | fail | Alternating — unstable |
| BNB (BNB/USDT perp) | fail | fail | pass | fail | Single isolated point — weak |
| Solana (SOL/USDT perp) | pass | pass | pass | fail | Broad region |
| XRP (XRP/USDT perp) | fail | pass | fail | fail | Single isolated point — weak |
| Cardano (ADA/USDT perp) | fail | fail | fail | fail | No robust fraction |
| Dogecoin (DOGE/USDT perp) | fail | fail | fail | fail | No robust fraction |
| Chainlink (LINK/USDT perp) | pass | fail | pass | fail | Alternating — unstable |
| Arbitrum (ARB/USDT perp) | fail | fail | fail | fail | No robust fraction |
| Sui (SUI/USDT perp) | fail | fail | fail | fail | No robust fraction |
What's not done yet
- Phase 2 entry-timing confluence factors (wick/body ratio, volume rate-of-change with its tick-proxy caveat, ATR contraction) -- spec Section 3f, deliberately sequenced after this base version, not tested yet.
- 4H timeframe check -- the chart the idea came from may have shown 4H bars; only 1H tested so far.
- Whether the 6 robust markets' edges are concentrated in a specific historical period, the way several BOS/CHoCH findings turned out to be -- not yet investigated.