SD1H4H — Best Validated Version

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Best Validated Version, Per Strategy

One row per market × engine × strategy combo (default 1H/4H pair, same universe as the Strategy Priority Ranking page), PLUS one additional row for every validated mechanics/entry/sizing finding on top of a base combo -- currently 5, all gold, all in the green Filter column below (a Tokyo/Asian session entry filter, two alternate stop mechanisms, one structure-detection param change, and a conviction-sizing scheme built on the session filter). Each variant row is its own ranked entry, layered on top of but NOT replacing its base combo's own (always-unfiltered/unmodified) baseline row -- the delta line underneath each variant row shows what changed. Every other row's "None (no validated filter)" means candidate filters WERE tested (a VWAP entry-confirmation filter under three different momentum definitions, a VIX daily regime filter, and the session filter swept across all 6 markets) and did not survive walk-forward, not that nothing was tried. See FINDINGS.md for the full writeup of every validated result and HANDOFF.md for every negative one. "Survives costs" mirrors the Trading Costs methodology (Vantage FX / Bybit rate cards). Ranked by the same risk-adjusted score the Priority Ranking page uses -- (MC probability of profit − MC risk of ruin), scaled down for samples under 200 trades, any combo that doesn't survive costs ranked last -- computed from each row's OWN numbers (i.e. a variant row is ranked on its own filtered/modified stats, its base combo's row is ranked on baseline). Not sorted by Monte Carlo median net profit alone: that ignores risk of ruin and drawdown entirely, so a high-median/high-ruin-risk combo would misleadingly outrank a lower-median/low-risk one. Avg R / Total R / PF are the single REALIZED historical result from this strategy's actual trade history. MC Med. PF / MC Med. Avg R are different: the MEDIAN across 2,000 bootstrap-resampled alternate trade sequences (same methodology as Prob. Profit / Risk of Ruin / Median DD, all four Monte Carlo columns share the same simulation) -- a forward-looking view of what's typical if this strategy's own historical trade distribution repeats, not a different or better estimate of the past. The two Avg R figures are usually close (same underlying trade pool) but can diverge on thin samples, where a skewed win/loss distribution pulls the bootstrap median away from the raw historical mean.
#MarketEngineStrat.Filter TradesWin %Avg RTotal RPF MC Med. PFMC Med. Avg R Prob. ProfitRisk of RuinMedian DDSurvives
1 Gold (XAU/USD) Original B Stop mechanism: ENGINE=lookback_10 (10-bar swing-stop lookback, vs. 30 baseline) 744 23.92% +0.213R +158.6R 1.29 1.28 +0.210R 92.7% 4.6% 40.6% Yes
vs. unfiltered baseline (755 trades, net avg +0.170R, 89.95% prob. profit, 5.4% risk of ruin, 40.42% median drawdown): 3/3 walk-forward folds held up net of costs. Parameter sweep (10/15/20/50/75/100) shows two flat plateaus, not a fine-tuned single point -- only crossing between bands (10-20 vs. 50-100) matters. Does NOT hold for Strategy A on the same market (2/3 folds) and does NOT stack with Finding 4 (no_event_bias) -- combined net avg R (+0.205) is slightly below either alone.
2 Gold (XAU/USD) Original A Tokyo/Asian session only (00:00-07:00 UTC) 326 32.21% +0.142R +46.4R 1.24 1.22 +0.132R 85.3% 0.3% 22.8% Yes
vs. unfiltered baseline (1125 trades, net avg +0.033R, 64.0% prob. profit, 13.85% risk of ruin, 43.35% median drawdown): 3/3 walk-forward folds held up net of costs. Does NOT generalize to other markets or to Strategy B on this same market (2/3 folds) -- a 60-test sweep across all 6 markets found only this one result distinguishable from pure chance. See the Strategy Priority Ranking page's "Tested" note for the full writeup.
3 Gold (XAU/USD) Original B None 755 24.37% +0.170R +128.7R 1.23 1.23 +0.168R 90.0% 5.4% 40.4% Yes
4 Gold (XAU/USD) Original B Structure param: ENGINE=no_event_bias (use_event_bias=False) 674 23.0% +0.211R +142.2R 1.28 1.28 +0.212R 89.8% 6.8% 40.2% Yes
vs. unfiltered baseline (755 trades, net avg +0.170R, 89.95% prob. profit, 5.4% risk of ruin, 40.42% median drawdown): 3/3 walk-forward folds held up net of costs. Structurally meaningful, not an arbitrary flag flip: collapses the original engine's two-bias system toward the variant (LuxAlgo) engine's single self-referential bias. Does NOT stack with Finding 2 (lookback_10) -- combined result is slightly worse than either alone. Unlike Findings 2/3, NOT a uniform Monte Carlo win: risk of ruin ticks up slightly (5.4% -> 6.8%) even as avg R and total R both improve.
5 Gold (XAU/USD) Original A Stop mechanism: ENGINE=atrstop_15 (1.5×ATR14 stop, replaces swing-based) 1156 30.19% +0.094R +108.9R 1.16 1.16 +0.093R 79.2% 12.2% 44.0% Yes
vs. unfiltered baseline (1125 trades, net avg +0.033R, 64.0% prob. profit, 13.85% risk of ruin, 43.35% median drawdown): 3/3 walk-forward folds held up net of costs. Gross avg R improves across nearly the whole 0.8x-3.0x ATR multiplier range tested -- a regional effect, not a narrow single-point fit. Does NOT hold for Strategy B on the same market (2/3 folds). Drawdown ticks up very slightly (43.35% -> 44.02%) even as every other metric improves.
6 Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) Original A None 1170 34.02% +0.053R +61.7R 1.10 1.10 +0.053R 74.0% 10.2% 42.0% Yes
7 Gold (XAU/USD) Original A Tokyo filter signal, sized not filtered (1.5×/0.75× conviction sizing) 1125 32.09% +0.033R +36.7R 1.06 n/a +0.033R 73.1% 11.9% 43.0% Yes
vs. unfiltered baseline (1125 trades, net avg +0.033R, 61.15% prob. profit, 16.65% risk of ruin, 44.42% median drawdown): Enhancement of the Tokyo/Asian session finding above (Finding 1), not an independent result -- inherits its scope and caveats entirely. avg R/total R are IDENTICAL to the unfiltered baseline by construction (sizing doesn't change any trade's R-multiple); only the account-level Monte Carlo columns differ, via a joint (r_multiple, risk_pct) bootstrap. Checked 5 multiplier pairs: only genuine reallocation (boost Tokyo AND reduce elsewhere) helps -- boosting Tokyo alone without reducing others makes risk of ruin WORSE than flat sizing. 1.5×/0.75× is an illustrative choice, not an optimized one.
8 Gold (XAU/USD) Original A None 1125 32.09% +0.033R +36.7R 1.06 1.06 +0.033R 64.0% 13.8% 43.4% Yes
9 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Variant A None 99 22.22% +0.512R +50.7R 1.64 1.57 +0.466R 80.0% 0.1% 21.8% Yes
10 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Variant B None 73 17.81% +0.928R +67.8R 2.07 1.97 +0.846R 88.4% 0.0% 18.3% Yes
11 Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Variant A None 85 25.88% +0.107R +9.1R 1.15 1.12 +0.087R 58.5% 0.0% 17.6% Yes
12 Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) Variant A None 87 22.99% +0.079R +6.9R 1.10 1.09 +0.068R 56.1% 0.0% 18.9% Yes
13 Gold (XAU/USD) Variant A None 80 22.5% +0.060R +4.8R 1.08 1.06 +0.046R 51.7% 0.0% 19.1% Yes
14 Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) Variant B None 47 19.15% +0.712R +33.5R 1.90 1.83 +0.649R 86.0% 0.0% 12.8% Yes
15 Silver (XAG/USD) Variant A None 81 24.69% +0.035R +2.8R 1.04 1.01 +0.006R 46.4% 0.0% 20.7% Yes
16 Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Variant B None 58 17.24% +0.317R +18.4R 1.38 1.30 +0.247R 62.0% 0.0% 17.8% Yes
17 Gold (XAU/USD) Variant B None 34 23.53% +1.825R +62.0R 3.32 3.06 +1.634R 90.1% 0.0% 10.3% Yes
18 Silver (XAG/USD) Variant B None 47 12.77% +0.548R +25.7R 1.54 1.45 +0.455R 61.0% 0.0% 21.2% Yes
19 Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) Original B None 823 24.3% +0.007R +5.7R 1.01 1.00 +0.003R 37.3% 43.4% 57.8% Yes
20 S&P 500 (US 500) Original A None 1197 31.83% -0.042R -50.0R 0.93 0.93 -0.043R 12.8% 68.5% 68.0% No
21 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Original B None 1129 21.26% -0.049R -55.1R 0.94 0.94 -0.054R 13.3% 81.7% 82.0% No
22 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Original A None 1693 29.65% -0.070R -118.7R 0.90 0.89 -0.073R 4.3% 93.5% 88.6% No
23 S&P 500 (US 500) Original B None 804 25.25% -0.089R -71.7R 0.88 0.88 -0.091R 7.5% 76.3% 70.9% No
24 S&P 500 (US 500) Variant B None 58 8.62% -0.110R -6.3R 0.88 0.82 -0.161R 31.8% 0.0% 26.2% No
25 Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Original A None 1263 29.77% -0.136R -171.5R 0.77 0.77 -0.136R 0.0% 99.2% 86.9% No
26 Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Original B None 857 23.92% -0.192R -164.2R 0.75 0.75 -0.193R 0.1% 98.7% 86.1% No
27 S&P 500 (US 500) Variant A None 92 16.3% -0.248R -22.8R 0.70 0.68 -0.261R 10.9% 0.7% 30.3% No
28 Silver (XAG/USD) Original B None 812 22.41% -0.289R -234.6R 0.70 0.70 -0.292R 0.0% 100.0% 93.7% No
29 Silver (XAG/USD) Original A None 1177 28.46% -0.339R -398.5R 0.57 0.57 -0.339R 0.0% 100.0% 98.5% No