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Overview
Strategy A
Strategy B
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Monte Carlo
← Original Model
Strategy A — 1H Entries / 1H Structure Exit
Entries fire on a 1H BOS/CHoCH aligned with 4H bias (WithHTF_BOS + CounterHTF_CHOCH), filtered by EMA(50) on 1H. Stop is placed behind the last opposite 1H candle (V1.2 rule, max 30-bar lookback). Exit is a runner: closes on stop-hit or on an opposing 1H BOS/CHoCH.
Trades
99
Win Rate
22.22%
Avg R / Trade
+0.59
Total R
+58.30
Profit Factor
1.787
Max Drawdown
-26.29R
Avg Win / Avg Loss
+6.02 / -0.96
Long / Short
56 / 43
Stop / Opp-Break Exits
69 / 30
Std Dev (R) / Sharpe-like
5.21 / 0.11
Max Win / Loss Streak
3 / 12
Account Balance ($1,000 start, 1% risk/trade, compounding)
Distribution & Consistency
Std dev 5.21R, mean/std (Sharpe-like) 0.11 — longest losing streak 12 trades, longest winning streak 3 trades. At a 22.22% win rate, losing streaks of this length are statistically expected, not a sign the edge broke.
Avg MAE 0.85R, avg MFE 3.25R — winning trades give back an average of 4.01R between their peak unrealized profit and the actual exit price. Points near the diagonal ran roughly as far against the entry as they did in its favor before resolving.
By Signal Type
BOS WithHTF continuation
Trades
42
Win Rate
23.81%
Avg R
+1.16
Total R
+48.65
Profit Factor
2.537
Max Drawdown
-11.80R
CHoCH CounterHTF reversal
Trades
57
Win Rate
21.05%
Avg R
+0.17
Total R
+9.65
Profit Factor
1.227
Max Drawdown
-17.65R
By Direction
LONG
Trades
56
Win Rate
21.43%
Avg R
+0.25
Total R
+14.14
Profit Factor
1.327
Max Drawdown
-17.30R
SHORT
Trades
43
Win Rate
23.26%
Avg R
+1.03
Total R
+44.16
Profit Factor
2.429
Max Drawdown
-15.90R
Trades
| # | Dir | Signal | Entry Time (UTC) | Entry | Stop | Exit Time (UTC) | Exit | Reason | R | 4H Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-02-01 16:00 | 39089.00 | 38308.40 | 2022-02-01 19:00 | 38308.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 2 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-02-11 18:00 | 42637.90 | 43850.40 | 2022-02-15 08:00 | 43850.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 3 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-03-13 22:00 | 37685.60 | 38773.00 | 2022-03-14 04:00 | 38773.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 4 | LONG | BOS | 2022-03-18 17:00 | 41643.10 | 40416.00 | 2022-04-06 13:00 | 44190.00 | opp_break | +2.08 | Bullish |
| 5 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-05-15 20:00 | 30990.00 | 29953.20 | 2022-05-16 06:00 | 29953.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 6 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-05-30 02:00 | 30123.90 | 29217.60 | 2022-06-07 02:00 | 29217.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 7 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-06-10 16:00 | 28975.50 | 29619.40 | 2022-06-26 11:00 | 21662.80 | opp_break | +11.36 | Bullish |
| 8 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-07-07 14:00 | 20868.80 | 20331.70 | 2022-07-11 06:00 | 20331.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 9 | LONG | BOS | 2022-07-18 15:00 | 22634.80 | 22045.70 | 2022-07-18 17:00 | 22045.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 10 | LONG | BOS | 2022-07-30 12:00 | 24323.30 | 23682.20 | 2022-07-30 22:00 | 23682.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 11 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-08-04 16:00 | 22552.10 | 22912.40 | 2022-08-05 02:00 | 22912.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 12 | LONG | BOS | 2022-08-11 01:00 | 24405.30 | 23776.00 | 2022-08-12 00:00 | 23776.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 13 | LONG | BOS | 2022-08-15 02:00 | 24890.30 | 24158.50 | 2022-08-15 06:00 | 24158.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 14 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-08-17 13:00 | 23392.10 | 23878.20 | 2022-09-09 04:00 | 20332.70 | opp_break | +6.29 | Bullish |
| 15 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2022-09-19 02:00 | 18729.00 | 19478.20 | 2022-09-19 19:00 | 19478.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 16 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-09-27 01:00 | 19731.20 | 19044.80 | 2022-09-27 16:00 | 19044.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 17 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-10-04 19:00 | 20187.90 | 19931.20 | 2022-10-05 11:00 | 19931.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 18 | SHORT | BOS | 2022-10-20 00:00 | 18936.40 | 19244.90 | 2022-10-20 14:00 | 19244.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 19 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-10-25 15:00 | 19715.60 | 19222.90 | 2022-11-08 15:00 | 19222.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 20 | SHORT | BOS | 2022-11-28 01:00 | 16101.50 | 16442.10 | 2022-11-29 05:00 | 16442.10 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 21 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-11-30 00:00 | 16807.50 | 16388.90 | 2022-12-07 07:00 | 16726.40 | opp_break | -0.19 | Bearish |
| 22 | LONG | CHoCH | 2022-12-13 09:00 | 17396.70 | 17121.60 | 2022-12-16 09:00 | 17121.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 23 | SHORT | BOS | 2022-12-19 22:00 | 16378.00 | 16572.30 | 2022-12-20 02:00 | 16572.30 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 24 | SHORT | BOS | 2022-12-27 17:00 | 16636.60 | 16798.50 | 2023-01-02 03:00 | 16621.10 | opp_break | +0.10 | Bearish |
| 25 | LONG | BOS | 2023-01-08 23:00 | 17090.20 | 16915.60 | 2023-02-09 03:00 | 22479.00 | opp_break | +30.86 | Bullish |
| 26 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-02-24 16:00 | 23163.40 | 23820.90 | 2023-02-27 15:00 | 23820.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 27 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-03-13 14:00 | 23585.20 | 22036.10 | 2023-04-17 00:00 | 29825.30 | opp_break | +4.03 | Bearish |
| 28 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-05-23 03:00 | 27344.70 | 26773.50 | 2023-05-24 03:00 | 26773.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 29 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-05-28 18:00 | 27559.60 | 27197.60 | 2023-05-31 05:00 | 27197.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 30 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-06-05 15:00 | 25967.30 | 26783.60 | 2023-06-06 19:00 | 26783.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 31 | SHORT | BOS | 2023-06-10 04:00 | 25717.80 | 26434.00 | 2023-06-16 18:00 | 26434.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 32 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-06-18 00:00 | 26420.00 | 26247.70 | 2023-06-18 23:00 | 26247.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 33 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-07-06 22:00 | 30131.50 | 30313.00 | 2023-07-07 13:00 | 30313.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 34 | LONG | BOS | 2023-07-13 17:00 | 31056.70 | 30700.30 | 2023-07-14 17:00 | 30700.30 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 35 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-07-14 18:00 | 30088.60 | 31330.50 | 2023-08-01 23:00 | 29669.70 | opp_break | +0.34 | Bullish |
| 36 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-08-23 16:00 | 26362.60 | 25794.80 | 2023-08-25 14:00 | 25794.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 37 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-09-07 21:00 | 26122.50 | 25794.80 | 2023-09-08 10:00 | 25794.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 38 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-09-14 00:00 | 26484.10 | 26161.10 | 2023-09-14 01:00 | 26161.10 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 39 | LONG | CHoCH | 2023-09-27 11:00 | 26727.30 | 26192.80 | 2023-09-27 14:00 | 26192.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 40 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-10-11 02:00 | 27088.80 | 27436.40 | 2023-10-16 05:00 | 27436.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 41 | LONG | BOS | 2023-10-21 17:00 | 30094.40 | 29793.80 | 2023-10-22 07:00 | 29793.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 42 | LONG | BOS | 2023-11-01 20:00 | 35376.60 | 34466.70 | 2023-11-02 16:00 | 34466.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 43 | LONG | BOS | 2023-11-09 02:00 | 36330.60 | 35569.70 | 2023-11-14 18:00 | 35569.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 44 | LONG | BOS | 2023-12-08 21:00 | 44492.30 | 43612.20 | 2023-12-09 23:00 | 43612.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 45 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-12-11 02:00 | 41920.80 | 43807.30 | 2023-12-20 13:00 | 43730.70 | opp_break | -0.96 | Bullish |
| 46 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2023-12-30 08:00 | 41537.00 | 42053.60 | 2023-12-30 12:00 | 42053.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 47 | LONG | BOS | 2024-01-08 12:00 | 45094.60 | 43605.60 | 2024-01-12 16:00 | 43605.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 48 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-01-12 22:00 | 42419.50 | 43946.50 | 2024-01-28 03:00 | 42191.80 | opp_break | +0.15 | Bullish |
| 49 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-02-24 01:00 | 50529.30 | 50843.60 | 2024-02-24 04:00 | 50843.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 50 | LONG | BOS | 2024-03-08 20:00 | 69215.60 | 67334.90 | 2024-03-11 00:00 | 67334.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 51 | LONG | BOS | 2024-03-11 07:00 | 70973.90 | 68445.10 | 2024-03-15 02:00 | 68445.10 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 52 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-03-16 23:00 | 65236.20 | 66694.80 | 2024-03-17 09:00 | 66694.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 53 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-04-01 14:00 | 68863.70 | 70046.20 | 2024-04-07 01:00 | 69508.50 | opp_break | -0.55 | Bullish |
| 54 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-04-12 18:00 | 66445.20 | 69671.00 | 2024-04-22 22:00 | 67006.60 | opp_break | -0.17 | Bullish |
| 55 | LONG | CHoCH | 2024-05-15 18:00 | 65729.00 | 62230.10 | 2024-06-11 02:00 | 68192.50 | opp_break | +0.70 | Bearish |
| 56 | SHORT | BOS | 2024-06-14 16:00 | 65242.30 | 67310.30 | 2024-06-30 22:00 | 62759.00 | opp_break | +1.20 | Bearish |
| 57 | LONG | CHoCH | 2024-07-10 04:00 | 59312.10 | 57397.40 | 2024-07-10 19:00 | 57397.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 58 | LONG | BOS | 2024-07-19 16:00 | 66414.20 | 63617.80 | 2024-07-25 14:00 | 63617.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 59 | LONG | BOS | 2024-07-27 13:00 | 69176.60 | 68024.50 | 2024-07-27 19:00 | 68024.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 60 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-08-01 15:00 | 62855.30 | 64874.20 | 2024-08-01 21:00 | 64874.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 61 | SHORT | BOS | 2024-09-06 14:00 | 54689.30 | 56898.90 | 2024-09-09 19:00 | 56898.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 62 | LONG | CHoCH | 2024-09-12 01:00 | 58105.70 | 57296.90 | 2024-10-01 19:00 | 61716.20 | opp_break | +4.46 | Bearish |
| 63 | LONG | BOS | 2024-10-18 14:00 | 68393.40 | 67609.20 | 2024-10-21 13:00 | 67609.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 64 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2024-10-23 08:00 | 66491.20 | 67196.50 | 2024-10-24 00:00 | 67196.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 65 | LONG | BOS | 2024-11-06 03:00 | 74313.50 | 69258.80 | 2024-12-20 10:00 | 94189.70 | opp_break | +3.93 | Bullish |
| 66 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-01-06 04:00 | 99401.10 | 98146.50 | 2025-01-07 15:00 | 98146.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 67 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-01-14 09:00 | 97113.00 | 94752.40 | 2025-01-27 02:00 | 100889.90 | opp_break | +1.60 | Bearish |
| 68 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2025-02-18 17:00 | 93988.80 | 95624.80 | 2025-02-19 00:00 | 95624.80 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 69 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2025-02-24 14:00 | 94590.80 | 95834.00 | 2025-03-14 15:00 | 84692.50 | opp_break | +7.96 | Bullish |
| 70 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-04-06 17:00 | 80717.80 | 82686.40 | 2025-04-09 17:00 | 82169.50 | opp_break | -0.74 | Bearish |
| 71 | LONG | BOS | 2025-05-01 10:00 | 96168.50 | 94812.50 | 2025-05-05 00:00 | 94812.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 72 | LONG | BOS | 2025-05-08 02:00 | 98673.00 | 96967.20 | 2025-05-29 17:00 | 106284.20 | opp_break | +4.46 | Bullish |
| 73 | LONG | BOS | 2025-06-16 04:00 | 106390.30 | 105698.00 | 2025-06-17 11:00 | 105698.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 74 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2025-06-17 15:00 | 104235.90 | 107765.50 | 2025-06-25 07:00 | 106649.20 | opp_break | -0.68 | Bullish |
| 75 | LONG | BOS | 2025-06-29 11:00 | 108485.80 | 107213.90 | 2025-06-30 14:00 | 107213.90 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 76 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2025-07-01 14:00 | 105924.40 | 106903.70 | 2025-07-02 06:00 | 106903.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 77 | LONG | BOS | 2025-07-09 19:00 | 111777.50 | 109031.10 | 2025-07-15 14:00 | 115963.10 | opp_break | +1.52 | Bullish |
| 78 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-07-25 03:00 | 115403.00 | 118503.30 | 2025-07-27 14:00 | 118503.30 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 79 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-08-01 08:00 | 114552.00 | 115674.50 | 2025-08-01 12:00 | 115674.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 80 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-08-07 10:00 | 116344.80 | 114260.70 | 2025-08-14 16:00 | 117900.90 | opp_break | +0.75 | Bearish |
| 81 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-08-25 07:00 | 111454.40 | 113594.60 | 2025-09-10 12:00 | 113396.40 | opp_break | -0.91 | Bearish |
| 82 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-10-01 11:00 | 116811.10 | 116212.40 | 2025-10-10 19:00 | 116212.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 83 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-10-26 22:00 | 114667.10 | 113297.10 | 2025-10-28 20:00 | 113297.10 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 84 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-11-03 15:00 | 105700.40 | 108292.80 | 2025-11-09 19:00 | 104783.00 | opp_break | +0.35 | Bearish |
| 85 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-12-03 04:00 | 93337.10 | 92569.60 | 2025-12-03 14:00 | 92569.60 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 86 | SHORT | BOS | 2025-12-18 19:00 | 84458.50 | 89350.20 | 2025-12-19 15:00 | 89350.20 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 87 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-12-22 11:00 | 89882.20 | 88714.40 | 2025-12-22 19:00 | 88714.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 88 | LONG | CHoCH | 2025-12-29 03:00 | 90106.40 | 87406.00 | 2025-12-29 12:00 | 87406.00 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 89 | LONG | BOS | 2026-01-12 02:00 | 92065.30 | 90318.50 | 2026-01-12 10:00 | 90318.50 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 90 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2026-01-18 23:00 | 93609.90 | 95499.00 | 2026-02-25 18:00 | 69332.60 | opp_break | +12.85 | Bullish |
| 91 | LONG | BOS | 2026-03-13 08:00 | 71825.00 | 71168.70 | 2026-03-13 16:00 | 71168.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 92 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2026-03-19 07:00 | 70189.20 | 71596.80 | 2026-03-23 13:00 | 71466.30 | opp_break | -0.91 | Bullish |
| 93 | SHORT | CHoCH | 2026-03-27 10:00 | 66438.70 | 68819.70 | 2026-04-01 06:00 | 68819.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bullish |
| 94 | LONG | BOS | 2026-04-13 22:00 | 74653.20 | 73020.40 | 2026-04-27 15:00 | 76786.50 | opp_break | +1.31 | Bullish |
| 95 | SHORT | BOS | 2026-05-28 01:00 | 74187.50 | 74475.30 | 2026-06-13 15:00 | 64264.90 | opp_break | +34.48 | Bearish |
| 96 | LONG | CHoCH | 2026-07-02 03:00 | 60969.60 | 59503.20 | 2026-07-13 01:00 | 63349.40 | opp_break | +1.62 | Bearish |
| 97 | LONG | CHoCH | 2026-07-14 15:00 | 64678.30 | 63609.40 | 2026-07-17 00:00 | 63609.40 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 98 | SHORT | BOS | 2026-07-31 14:00 | 62585.30 | 63895.30 | 2026-08-03 14:00 | 63895.30 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |
| 99 | SHORT | BOS | 2026-08-10 15:00 | 64236.20 | 64829.70 | 2026-08-18 14:00 | 64829.70 | stop | -1.00 | Bearish |